There was some hope in early Japanese trading that after a seemingly endless rout in the USD/JPY, which has seen the Yen surge the most in the past two weeks since the 1998 Asian crisis, the BOJ would intervene, if not via policy where it has botched things up beyond repair then directly by selling Yen on the tape: the reason for this is not only yesterday's direct intervention that sent the USD/JPY soaring by over 150 pips briefly, but also after a report that Finance Ministry's FX chief Masatsugu Asakawa met deputy chief cabinet secretary to discuss market issues; this was followed by a meeting between Kuroda and Abe the news of which promptly allowed the USDJPY to rise to 113.
However, it was not meant to be, and when there was no major intervention during the BOJ's preferred hours of 9-11, the USD/JPY proceeded to tumble all the way down to 111.60, from where it has rebounded modestly and is now trading around 112.45.
As a result, the Nikkei 225 plunged another 4.8%, and following prior day losses of 2.3% and 5.4%, Japan's stock market is now down a whopping 20% just this past week! Perhaps putting all those pensions in stocks was not such a great idea.
Elsewhere, with China still closed, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.2% to 18,319.58, its lowest close since June 2012; it has fallen 5% this week.
However, while Japan crashed and burned, the feeling of some fleeting optimism returned after oil halted its plunge after hitting a 13 year low yesterday following an out of context statement from the U.A.E. minister, who said that “everyone is ready to cooperate,” U.A.E. Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told Sky News Arabia in Arabic-language interview that was originally posted to website Feb. 10. He added that “Prices are not appropriate, I won't say for the majority only, but for all producers” which is a far cry from the imminent OPEC supply cut he was spun as saying. Still, for now the algos are happy and his comment helped push oil about 5% higher. It won't last.
Oil also helped Europe, where the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied from its lowest close since September 2013 following a Commerzbank AG (+17%) report that led financial institutions higher after saying it returned to profit, while miners and energy producers rose with commodities.
Still, few are optimistic, especially after Marko Kolanovic latest note which sees not only near-term risks, but a potential recession that could be worse than the 2008-2009 crisis.
Here is an example of the hyperbolic pessimism out there: “I'd be weary of calling anything a lasting rebound until I see it,” said Ben Kumar, an investment manager at Seven Investment Management told Bloomberg. “It's crazy that the market is priced for recession and a complete failure of the financial system. But you wouldn't want to call it the end of the rout quite yet. Nobody wants to be the first bull now.” Uhm, the S&P is about 15% below its all time high: you will know when the market is priced for a “complete failure of the financial system” – this is not it.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose after reaching the lowest since 2012 on Thursday. In Asian trading, Japanese stocks capped their worst week since 2008 and currencies from New Zealand to Thailand slumped.
Industrial metals also advanced. Nickel climbed 1.1 percent to $7,675 a metric ton, rebounding from a 13-year low. Copper rose 1 percent and aluminum added 0.6 percent.
Gold was modestly down from its highest levels in over a year, trading at $1242, and is headed for its biggest weekly gain in four years as investors sought out havens. Silver dropped 0.7 percent.
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