There is no simplifying Brazil's political or economic situation. Anyone “certain” about the outcome is sure to get smacked in its crossfires sooner or later. Corruption might be bi-partisan in the United States, legalized in many cases, but in Brazil, it's the full multi-party monty. Eduardo Cunha, the Lower House speaker gunning for President (and political rival) Dilma Rousseff's impeachment, has just been fingered by the Panama Papers for stashing millions in Switzerland.
He was also under Carwash corruption investigations. No one so tainted, should risk throwing stones so blithely at a sitting, elected president. Brazil's new Attorney General, Jose Eduardo Cardozo, said as much, yesterday, on the grounds there are no legal reasons to impeach her, and that doing so would be to “rip up the constitution.”
The domestic and international implications associated with Brazil's internal turmoil transcend the walls of the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, a planned city that belies its far less organized and cohesive government.
The majority of national and foreign press outlets have considered the impeachment of Dilma Rouseff a foregone conclusion, a question of when, not if. Last week's defection of the PMDB party, led by wannabe President, Michel Temer, the current Vice President hand-picked by PT (Worker's Party) leader, Dilma Rouseff was deemed another sign of her pending removal. Waiting in the wings of power, Temer had written a letter on December 7, 2015, that went viral and became the butte of many jokes in Brazil. He complained that Dilma didn't trust him enough to give him real latitude in her government. She was right. Score one for female intuition at least.
But that impeachment conclusion is based on a lattice of shaky alliances whose loyalties, like Temer's and the party he represents that historically sides with power not policy, can not be fully trusted. And even so, Temer isn't on solid ground.
Individual PMDB deputies don't have to vote with their party's leader, in the case of impeachment proceeding, or on anything for that matter. Brazil's major newspapers lean pro-impeachment and thus, tend to overplay that stance publicly, skewing popular opinion and downplaying the horse-trading strategies of Dilma's supporters. Brazilian newspaper, O Estado de São Paulo (Estadão), released their own math on April 2regarding the impeachment situation in the House of Representatives.
According to their research, which only applies to 442 out of 513 deputies, 261 deputies are pro impeachment, 117 are against it, and 44 are undecided or waiting for more party direction. Even if one takes what politicians say in secret to a right-leaning paper for granted, these figures are actually better for the government than the opposition. Moving forward on impeachment requires 342 votes – which aren't there. The real situation can be recapped as follows:
