When markets move from bullish to bearish suddenly troubling conditions previously brushed-off by investors suddenly appear like snow melting over them—drip, drip, drip.
This is what's occurring now as central banks' Keynesian experiments desperately expand; the Mideast refugee crisis grows; violence surrounding illegal aliens in Europe and the u.s. becomes apparent as citizens see their culture's threatened; economic conditions globally contract; political correctness now goes too far; student debt piles up; houses, where the jobs are, become unaffordable to buy or rent; the political process features outside populists supported by an irate public over corruption and do-thingness; bullsh*t from officialdom is seen for the bullsh*t it is and, a litany of complaints too long to list here exists.
Most of us know central banks are lying regarding economic conditions being good or “solid”. If they are as they say, why go down another experimental rabbit hole by moving to the absurd device of negative interest rates. It would be hard to abandon current Keynesian policies given how long TPTB (the powers that be) have relied on them for their existence.
Equity markets globally are collapsing, gold soars, the dollar weakens and investors overall flock to safety in U.S. Treasury Bonds and (gasp!) cash. Taken together this action no doubt pisses-off theTPTB. And, if they're pissed, imagine how many monetarists have felt all these past 7 years!
I make no apology for my sentiments. It's enough for subscribers to be in cash and/or short. The overall message always conveyed to subscribers has been, “the news follows the trend”. As we closed our lazy portfolio on December 31st the reason was the path ahead wasn't bullish. Since then, the news has support that bearish view.
Beyond throwing the bums out, what else has to happen. Interest rates stayed too low (ZIRP) for too long once the “emergency” had passed. So hooked on the sugar from the Fed kept bullish markets moving along. Abetted by cheap interest rates corporations elected not to invest in growth but to buyback shares financed by cheap interest rates. This has to change but it will be painful initially.
