I continue to be more and more concerned about the market overall. China, Greece, flat earnings growth, a collapse in the energy & commodity complex and a strong dollar are all major headwinds to the market and frequently are covered as the headlines that they are. However, I am also watching a couple of things that do not get the same press. Nonetheless, they should be “watch items” to seasoned investors as they are approaching activity levels that have shown up near the top of previous market cycles such as 2000 & 2007.
These “watch items” are never an exact science, and I am not abandoning the market just yet. There are still attractive investment opportunities in the market right now, and the companies I am recommending today have all had serious insider buying occurring recently. In my opinion, this is a bullish sign for these companies and shows that their insiders, some of the people who know the company best, see their stocks as good values right now.
Global Merger & Acquisition volume posted its seventh highest monthly deal total in the just completed month of July, and the M&A pace was actually down from June. Annual M&A volume is on pace to set an all-time record this year, topping 2007's levels. M&A volume really accelerated in 2014 and has risen significantly from there so far in 2015. Companies are flush with cash and stock buyback levels are also at all-time highs. Global growth is tepid. Firms are choosing to repurchase their own shares and buy growth via acquisitions instead of investing in new plants and capacity. Financing rates are historically low and larger companies are finding smaller concerns and private equity owners eager to sell out at significant premiums.
The amount of venture capital investment coming into the private market is the highest in 15 years. The last time this volume was this high was just before the internet bust of 2000. It seems only IPO activity is not at or near historical records. This is probably because the so called “unicorns” like Airbnb and snapchat can get absurd valuations during their funding rounds and have no need to come public. Uber was just valued at $51 billion at its just concluded funding round. This is a great service but the company has lost some $1 billion since its founding and had around $400 million in revenues over the last 12 months.