Why This Bubble Is Actually Worse Than The Internet Tech Bubble

I've been invited to speak on many media outlets lately, hammering on and on about how this is another bubble. Worse, an artificial one!

A bubble occurs naturally when market forces converge. Trends come together and make the markets so hot that everyone starts piling in.

But it's one thing when investors speculate on the fundamentals like demographics, rising technology, and falling interest rates. For example, like in 1925 to 1929, and 1995 to 1999.

It's another when there are very few if any fundamentals at play! Like today.

Analysts still think the bull market's just in its 5th or 6th inning. Economists continue to assure us the Fed will step in if the market or starts to go down.

Pretty soon, they tell us, we won't even need endless QE or 0% interest rate policies! The economy will boom at a rate of 3%-plus. We'll hit escape velocity.

Everyone wants to get rich speculating and not have to work again – like going to financial heaven!

This is wishful thinking and denial at its worst! It's demented! What about supply and demand do these crazed economists not understand?

It doesn't matter what causes a bubble. A shock in supply like the OPEC oil embargo. A surge in demand for real estate due to the rapid migration of rural Chinese to cities. The boomers in unprecedented numbers hitting their own peak in demand for homes. Falling interest rates shifting investor speculation into the stock market – whether naturally as in the Roaring ‘20s, or artificially as in now. Governments giving away land for practically nothing at super low interest rates like in the 1820s and ‘30s.

The result is always the same: a huge imbalance in demand vs. supply.

If supply gets cut off, prices skyrocket. Demands slows. Alternatives for that commodity or investment emerge rapidly.

If demand gets too high, market forces curb it. When prices reach a height that only the most affluent can afford, the market adjusts back downward.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
No tags for this post.

Related posts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *