Am I Wrong To Doubt The Government’s Economic Figures?

Source: Wikimedia

Dear Diary,

“Has anyone seen my charger?” was probably the most common question heard in the Bonner household this Christmas.

Everyone has an electronic communication device of some sort. Every device has a charger. And at any given moment its owner can't find it.

iPhones and chargers all look alike. If you are in a house full of young people, and you are slightly retarded, the one in your pocket probably belongs to someone else.

That leaves the poor owner disconnected from what he believes is the real world – the world of Facebook, Twitter, Spotify and Instagram.

Cut off, he soon goes into a kind of catatonic withdrawal – like a dead Christian mistakenly assigned to the Devil – and cries out in indignation, desperation and pain:

“Who took my phone?”

Thus prompted, your editor pulls the phone out of his pocket and tries his passcode on it. It doesn't work. So, he replies: “I can't find my phone either.”

The Age of Miracles

Christmas has changed since the days of Scrooge and Cratchit. Even at the dinner table, you are likely to find someone checking the latest sports score or stock price.

As to the stock price, he needn't bother. There was nothing much going on in the markets. Traders, investors and speculators are enjoying a midwinter holiday.

They're also enjoying a spate of good news. As Chris reported yesterday, the latest revision to the third-quarter GDP growth number reveals the US economy growing at a 5% annual rate, with much of the boost coming from consumer spending.

Could that be correct?

Sure. This is the Age of Miracles. People are ready to believe anything.

Besides, it must be true. The Commerce Department calculated it. And the New York Times reports:

The American economy grew last quarter at its fastest rate in over a decade, providing the strongest evidence to date that the recovery is finally gaining sustained power more than five years after it began.

Bolstered by robust spending among consumers and businesses alike, economic output rose at an annual rate of 5% during the summer months, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, a sharp revision from its earlier estimate of 3.9%.

The advance followed a second quarter where growth reached a rate of 4.6% after a decline last winter that was exacerbated by particularly harsh weather.

The revision was led by an upswing in investment by businesses, a powerful force for growth in most economic recoveries but one that has lagged in the latest rebound.

Higher consumer spending, including increased outlays on health care, and a narrower trade balance also contributed to the summer improvement. The gain makes the third quarter the strongest since the summer of 2003.

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