The year-over-year rate of growth of the US Coincident Index declined marginally. A comparison of US Coincident Index, Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, Conference Board's Coincident Index, ECRI's USCI (u.s. Coincident Index), and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) coincident indicators follows. In general, most coincident indices are showing constant to declining rate of growth.

Economic indicators that coincide with economic movements are coincident indicators. Coincident indicators by definition do not provide a forward economic view. However, trends are valid until they are no longer valid, making the trend lines on the coincident indicators a forward forecasting tool. Econintersect‘s analysis of the coincident indices is that:

There is general agreement that the economy is expanding – but most show the rate of growth is flat (not speeding up or slowing down) or decelerating.

You cannot take most of these coincident indices to the bank – as they are subject to backward revision.

The economy is expanding at main street level.

Excerpt from Philly Fed Report for the United States Coincident Index

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for June 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 40 states, decreased in seven, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 66. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 42 states, decreased in six, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 72. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed's U.S. index rose 0.2 percent in June and 0.7 percent over the past three months.

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Philly Fed Coincident 1 month change 3 month change 1 year change January 2015 0.3% 0.9% 3.9% February 2015 0.3% 0.8% 3.9% March 2015 0.2% 0.6% 3.8% April 2015 0.2% 0.6% 3.7% May 2015 0.2% 0.7% 3.7% June 2015 0.2% 0.7% 3.6%