As noted in NFTRH 352:
I thought about releasing my JDST position on Friday because it is very profitable and because it appears that capitulation is in the air. But then I thought about the margin clerk and all those names he may be preparing to call upon on Monday. I thought about how my main intent is not to profit from the precious metals decline but to be intact for buying its bottom. I am not now nor never have been a bearish trader of great skill.
I released a portion of JDST on Monday's pukage because it had me weighted too net short (ref. the bit above about my lack of bear trader skills) after Monday's big shoe dropped. I thankfully kept the rest of the position, which is today at a 100% profit. But that is still not the position's primary objective.
Due to this disgusting chart's measurement, I decided to buy 3x Silver short DSLV (now nicely profitable as well) a couple days ago as silver bounced. After discussing the favorable trend developing in the gold and silver CoT structures last weekend #352 noted the following bearish technical situation in silver due to a loss of critical support.
The CoT are simply representations of what the various traders are doing on balance. The ‘commercials' (incl. a large contingent of companies within the gold industry) tend to be net short but that does not force the large speculators to buy. These large entities buy, gold sector promoters tout it and then the whole thing gets cleaned out. Don't personalize it. That is emotion. Use it. Anyway, technically silver can easily swoop down into the 13's if a capitulation event comes into play. Understand that these price objectives on Au and Ag are not predictions; they are measurements.
I expect the macro to turn over the next several weeks to few months. But for right now a process needs to finish up in the precious metals. We will need to see what the heretofore perma bulls are saying. Some have already switched bearish, which is positive. But others continue to live in denial and I think this process wants to address that.