The headlines say new home sales are down from last month. Econintersect also sees the new home sales data soft again this month — with the unadjusted 3-month rolling averages continuing to decline. As the data is noisy, the 3-month rolling average is the way to look at this data.
This data series is suffering from methodology issues. Not only does it cycle between good months, then bad months — but the backward revisions continue to be moderate to significant. Econintersect analysis:
Unadjusted Year-over-Year Rate of Growth –
Sales (blue line) and 3 month rolling average of Sales (red line)
US Census Headlines:
The quantity of new single family homes for sale remains well below historical levels.
Seasonally Adjusted New Homes for Sale
As the sales data is noisy (large monthly variations).
Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted New Home Sales Volumes
(blue line) with zero growth line emphasized
The headlines of the data release:
Sales of new single-family houses in November 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted analysis of 438,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the u.s. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.6 percent (±12.3%)* below the revised October rate of 445,000 and is 1.6 percent (±17.8%)* below the November 2013 estimate of 445,000.
