Kansas City Fed Survey: Manufacturing Less Negative In July

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey business conditions indicator measures activity in the following states: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, western Missouri, and northern New Mexico

Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

KANSAS CITY, Mo. The Bank of Kansas City released the July Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined again in July but less so than in previous months.

“Our headline index was closer to zero than in May or June but was still negative, indicating further contraction in regional factory activity. However, firms expect a modest pickup in activity in coming months.” [Full release here]

Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey. The three-month moving average, which helps us visualize trends, is at its lowest level since mid-2009.

Kansas City Manufacturing Composite

For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.

Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (updated after the last monthly Regional update, which is Richmond at the end of the month).

Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions – this averages out to approximately zero for the average, which is flat and neither expanding nor contracting.

Here are the remaining four monthly manufacturing indicators that we track:

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS)

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Fifth District Manufacturing Survey (Richmond)

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Here is a link to the Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview with the overlay charts.

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