Caterpillar Explains Why It Is A Global Recession

For those surprised by today's abysmal CAT Q2 results, we can only assume this is because our post from yesterday “Forget Recession: According To Caterpillar There Is A Full-Blown Global Depression” slipped through the cracks.

Here is the punchline we showed yesterday (and over the past several years) explaining why the stock just hit 52 week lows.

 

This is how we summarized it: ‘after an increasingly shallower series of dead CAT bounces in the past year, first thanks to Latin America, and then the US, global retail sales just dropped by 14% – marching the biggest Y/Y decline since the financial crisis.

Fast forward to today when we learn that in the second quarter sales dropped by, drumroll, 14% – the worst tumble in two years, driven almost entirely (but nott exclusively) by China and Latin America. Although every other part of the world was pretty bad too.

 

But as always the best insight comes from CAT's commentary of what is going on around the globe. Some excerpts from what is essentially a China bash fest:

  • The economic and industry conditions that were expected at the beginning of the year are occurring.  World economic growth is about as the company expected: severe weakness in mining continues, construction-related sales in China and Brazil are lower and new orders for oil-related applications declined.  
  • “While economic conditions in the United States are modestly positive, the global remains relatively stagnant.  Many of the key industries we serve remain weak, and we haven't seen sustained signs of improvementContinuing economic weakness in China and Brazil, as well as uncertainty in the Eurozone and over Greece, haven't helped confidence
  • Prices for commodities like coal, iron ore and oil are not signaling an improvement in the short term. 
  • Considering the world cup is about 12 months away, CAT may want to start booking some revenue there soon.

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