Natural Gas prices are down over 11.5% in the last 2 days, falling to their lowest price since January 2013, as a familiar tale of excess production in the face of ebbing demand looms large. As WSJ reports, BNP Paribas' Teri Viswanath notes “the delayed return of cold weather has simply curbed all buying interest,” and this was exaggerated by technical selling as the market broke previous support around 3.50. Ironically, given its detrimental impact on GDP, Macquarie points out, “it is increasingly apparent to us that weather will need to bail the market out again this winter – otherwise prices could see material downside during the spring and summer months.”
More tax-cuts, more discretionary spending!! oh and less employment, capex, and EPS for Oil & Gas stocks…
As The Wall Street Journal reports,
Natural-gas futures slid to their lowest prices this year and entered a bear market Friday, as investors come to grips with surging production that is beginning to push the u.s. toward potential oversupply.
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“The delayed return of cold weather has simply curbed all buying interest,” said Teri Viswanath, natural-gas strategist at BNP Paribas in New York. “Unseasonably warm weather that persisted through the month of December now necessitates extreme weather conditions to avoid a (gas supply) surplus.”
Analysts said Friday's selling was partly driven by technically driven trading as the market broke through levels where it previously rebounded.
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Though the U.S. has begun to draw on natural-gas stockpiles for fall and winter heating needs, continued booming production from U.S. shale fields is helping to replenish supplies. As a result, withdrawals from storage have been smaller than average, and the U.S. has begun to erase a supply deficit that has persisted most of this year, after outsize demand from the severe winter last season dragged stockpiles to an 11-year low.
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“It is increasingly apparent to us that weather will need to bail the market out again this winter—otherwise prices could see material downside during the spring and summer months,” Macquarie Bank said in a research note. “At this point, winter weather will determine just how low prices can go.”
