While the U.S. economy is reveling in low oil and gas prices, Russia is breaking down. Over the last two weeks, it's been playing military and economic shenanigans in a last-ditch effort to crawl out of the hole it largely dug for itself. But from what I've seen, Putin is an emotional and fickle leader, meaning it's very possible the country's aggressive actions could escalate. This could cause the price of global crude oil to spike – or crash. Which way will this already-volatile market go?

That Escalated Quickly

Russia's recent erratic actions are concerning. On December 12, an invisible (to radar) Russian surveillance plane nearly collided with a commercial aircraft in international airspace near southern Sweden. Russia denied any wrongdoing, of course.

But the incident exacerbated concern in the Baltics over signs of assertive Russian behavior in air force activity and displays of military prowess, including Russian planes regularly violating the national airspace of neighboring nations. In fact, NATO officials are likening this period to the Cold War.

Also on December 12, the U.S. Senate passed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act bill, which requests further sanctions against Moscow and up to $350-million worth of military gear delivered to the war-torn Ukraine through 2017.

The bill would also permit Obama to punish Gazprom (OGZPY), Russia's natural gas provider, if it holds back supplies to the Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.

The stricter sanctions would affect the numerous weapons companies that sell to Russia.

While it remains to be seen whether or not the Senate bill will pass, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the Interfax news agency that Russia “will not be able to leave this without a response,” pointing to vague countermeasures.

Backing that statement up, Putin plans to spend 3.3 trillion rubles on defense in 2015, despite efforts to adopt an austerity budget for next year. Russia's defense budget is the third largest globally, behind the United States and China.