Why Gold Hit A Five-Year Low And Will Likely Fall Lower

The problems in Greece and China threw the world markets into a tizzy over the past month. The Greeks seem schizophrenic rejecting then accepting the latest deal from their creditors, while the Chinese government layers on one new program after another to halt the rout in Chinese stocks. Every morning American investors must check the latest headlines to find out if something blew up, unraveled, or simply fell apart the night before.

It's been a bit exhausting.

But if we step back a bit and look at the bigger picture, some corners of the market haven't reacted to the manic-depressive swings from overseas.

One area that seems impervious to the emotional rollercoaster ride is precious metals. When it comes to gold, the market appears particularly relaxed. So relaxed that it's at risk of falling into a coma.

After spiking to $1,300 at the start of the year, yesterday the price of gold dropped to a near-term low of $1,106, falling 2.2% in a day. It actually fell below $1,100 that morning, hitting the lowest levels in five years.

If financial chaos drives the price of gold, then the near-exit of Greece from the euro zone, coupled with a free-falling Chinese stock market, should have sent the metal soaring.

To be fair, there was a spike in mid-June to $1,200. Or maybe it was a blip. It could've been an accident when a trader hit the wrong key while dusting off his computer.

Whatever it was, the momentary rebound stopped almost as quickly as it occurred, the price of gold ever lower. For the moment, the fear-of-financial-chaos trade appears dead.

It could be that no one is worried about the global financial system, or even major parts of it, blowing up. Personally, I doubt it. I'm concerned about major disruptions in the global financial system, and every day I read research from others who share those fears. So the current slow-bleed in gold must be for a different reason, and I think I know what it is.

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