It is magical!  Whatever the topic of current interest, there is no shortage of pundits.

The current energy experts were recently (it seems like only yesterday) the leading authorities on the Fed, Europe, Ukraine, Libya, deflation, hyperinflation, stagflation, and of course, Ebola.

The current crop of experts confidently talks about an oil glut, the motives of the Saudi's, and the demise of the US energy industry.  The nearly universal perception is that there is no bottom in oil prices.

I wonder how many experts could actually pass a test.  Suppose that CNBC used this to qualify experts.  My guess is that they would have no content!  If you can even give ballpark estimates on these questions, you will beat the pundits on television.

Pop Quiz

Pop quizzes were universally hated by my students, but were infallible at finding those who did not know basic facts.

Answers

3.  China is 1/2 the consumption of Europe — generally frugal and with shorter travel distances.  1/4 of the consumption of the US.

4.  300 million.  A growth rate of about 900% over the last ten years.  There are plenty of new highways and car dealers.  The growth rate will surely slow, but there are still about a billion drivers to come.  How about India?

5.  An increase of about 0.7% and a bit more in 2015.  I suspect that most “experts” are projecting declines.