The BLS jobs report headlines from the establishment survey were strong and above expectations. The unadjusted data shows good job growth but slightly less than last year. The household survey shows almost NO job growth. Will the real job situation please stand up?
Unadjusted Non-Farm Private Employment – Year-over-Year Change (blue bars) and Year-over-Year Growth Acceleration / Deceleration (red line)
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A summary of the employment situation:
The BLS reports seasonally adjusted data – manipulated with multiple seasonal adjustment factors, and Econintersect believes the unadjusted data gives a clearer picture of the jobs situation.
Non-seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls rose 380,000 – slightly lower than one year ago.
Historical Unadjusted Private Non-Farm Jobs Growth Between Octobers and Novembers (Table B-1, data in thousands) – unadjusted (blue line) vs seasonally adjusted (red line)
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Last month's seasonally adjusted employment was revised up (note that the unadjusted data was revised down).
Change in Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls Between Originally Reported (blue bars) and Current Estimates (red bars)
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Most of the analysis below uses unadjusted data, and presents an alternative view to the headline data.
Unemployment
The BLS reported U-3 (headline) unemployment unchanged at 5.8% with the U-6 “all in” unemployment rate (including those working part time who want a full time job) improved 0.1% to 11.4%. These numbers are volatile as they are created from the household survey.