Just as we suggested, US oil rig counts surged last week, tracking the lagged uptick in WTI prices and suggesting production's upward path will continue (after last week's weather-impacted drop).
US Oil Rig Count rose 10 to 752 last week – the most since June 2017…
The question is – as OilPrice.com's Nick Cunningham asks (and answers) – Will Shale restrain itself?
Brent recently hit $70 per barrel and Brent recently hit $70, and oil executives from the Middle East to Texas no doubt popped some champagne. The big question is whether or not U.S. shale will spoil the party by ramping up production to extraordinary heights, setting off another downturn.
The EIA made headlines a few days ago when it predicted that U.S. oil production would surge this year and next, topping 11 million barrels per day by the end of 2019.
But shale executives repeatedly promised their shareholders that they would be prudent this time around, eschewing a drill-no-matter-what mentality that so often led to higher levels of debt…and ultimately to lower oil prices. Shale executives repeatedly insisted in 2017 that they would not return to an aggressive drilling stance even if oil prices surged.
We will soon find out if oil in the mid-$60s can entice shale drillers to shed their caution and jump back into action in a dramatic way. For its part, Goldman Sachs seems to believe the promises from the shale industry.
The investment bank said that at an industry conference in Miami on January 10-11, shale executives reiterated their strategies of caution. “Shale producers are largely not looking to use $60+ oil in their budgets and spoke more proactively about debt paydown, corporate returns and returning cash to shareholders.”
This newfound restraint would contribute to still more gains in oil prices, the investment bank said. “With Discipline along with Demand and Disruptions (the 3 Ds) key drivers of Energy equity sentiment, we see potential for a grind higher as long as data points are favorable,” Goldman wrote. Global oil demand is set to grow at a robust rate this year, and a series of disruptions could keep supply offline in places like Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Libya, and Nigeria.
