So the markets are getting skittish and the media is obsessing about the many things that could go wrong out there. It’s like 2007 all over again, but with one big difference: Back then the mega-banks were reasonably sure the government would, if necessary, bail them out of their hundreds of trillions of dollars of…
Bearish Sentiment Priced In? The futures contract for January 2015 has gone from $102 a barrel in July to $57 a barrel today, a $45 dollar a barrel discounting of price in less than six months. Much of this move is based upon bearish sentiment and future expectations for oil supplies along with bearish headlines…
The Federal Reserve has been aggressively testing the various monetary tools that will give it additional flexibility during the rate normalization process. In addition to the Term Deposit Facility (see post), the Fed recently started testing the term reverse repo facility (Term RRP – see statement). Note that this is in addition to the Overnight RRP….
It’s been a rough run for Brazilian state-controlled oil giant Petrobras (PBR). The stock has been in almost continuous decline since late 2009 and its U.S.-traded ADR has lost nearly two-thirds of its value since July. This is a stock that was trading at over $70 per share in mid-2008. It now trades for barely one tenth…
As promised below, I have written something about investment (warning google document) In the note, I calculate some variables related to discounted future profits. Here is a snip from the paper in which I define them. Standard micro founded models of investment are based on shareholder value maximization and assume that there are adjustment costs, so…
Welcome to edition 234 of Insider Weekends. In a week where we saw the Dow post its biggest weekly decline since 2011, insider buying more than quadrupled with insiders buying $190.94 million of stock compared to $44.02 million in the week prior. Part of this buying was driven by insiders from the energy sector as we…
For months, our computer has been targeting next week – the week of December 15th. This target appears poised to present a low perhaps on Monday, which is also a panic cycle target. We can see that the Dow has remained nicely within the upward channel. So far it…
by Matt Insley Please pull up a seat, dear reader. The show has already started… We’re in the third act. The title of the show? The Downfall Of OPEC. Catchy name, eh? From our perch, here in the balcony seats of North America, the show has been fantastic. Kudos to the cast and crew! Bravo to the playwright! The show…
In space, no one can hear you scream… unless you happen to be Venezuela’s (soon to be former) leader Nicolas Maduro, who has been doing a lot of screaming this morning following news that UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said OPEC will stand by its decision not to cut crude output “even if oil prices fall as low…
by Michael Clark I have been speculating that China will join the currency war again, and in an even bigger way, the currency war that Japan is currently leading and threatening to win in a walk unless China gets serious about ‘getting competitive.’ China lowered interest rates last week; and this spurred heavy buying in…
