Retail sales improved according to US Census and well above expectations. Our analysis slightly disagrees – but the unadjusted data in this series is like riding a roller coaster. Because of the noise in this series, it is better to view the 3 month rolling average of sales growth which improved marginally (driven to a…
First it was humans. Now it is vacuum tubes. Having quickly learned that letting carbon-based traders engage in FX (or stock, or bond, or Libor, but not gold, never gold) rigging usually leads to said carbon-trader ultimately being fired with the bank suffering a violent slap on the wrist, banks are getting smart, and have…
Malinvestment vs. Overinvestment Recently we have come across a very interesting article by Lee Adler, which discusses the connection between the Fed’s money printing activities and the shale oil boom. In this context the possibility is mentioned that QE may actually contribute to “creating deflation”. Obviously, we agree with many, in fact with the vast majority…
Earnings estimates have been plummeting for Carmike Cinemas (CKEC –Snapshot Report) following disappointing Q3 results. The movie theater company experienced a big drop in attendance last quarter due in part to a weak domestic box office. This led to declining profit margins and negative earnings estimates revisions. Carmike is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). And while shares…
Since 2010, the average return for our weekly best scoring small caps has outpaced the R2K by a median 759 bps over the following year. The best performers from one year ago are UEIC up 68%, ODFL up 60%, PJC up 59%, MPWR up 58%, and GTIV up 53%. · The best small cap sector is…
The small-cap premium is one of the oldest return anomalies (or risk factors, if you’re so inclined) identified in the research literature. But after decades of analysis and mixed results, the idea that small company shares will outperform large caps also draws plenty of skepticism. Earlier this year, for instance, Morningstar asked: Does the Small-Cap Premium…
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.17%) this morning are up +0.10% as energy producers gained in pre-market trading after the price of crude oil rose from a 5-1/3 year low. U.S. stocks also found support on expectations that today’s data on U.S. Nov retail sales will be positive. European stocks are down -0.15% after mining…
Back in September, when the results of the first much-trumpeted TLTRO were announced, everyone said it was a clear disappointment, when European banks expressed just €82.6 billion in ECB credit demand, far below the €100-€300 billion range expected… … and well below the €400 billion across the two 2014 TLTROs hinted by Mario Draghi. Today, we…
