Treasury yields are up across the board, with the 30-year bond approaching a breakout level. A Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows traders piled into treasury shorts in record numbers in recent weeks. 10-Year Treasury Note Futures Positioning The blue line is large speculators (think hedge funds). The red line represents small speculators and the black line…
I’m short Treasurys, my dude. Dat’s yo’ word, son? Dat’s my word, homie. And word is bond. The “word” was indeed “bond” on Tuesday, or more appropriately “bonds”, plural. And some folks are indeed short. “Short USTs” was identified as the second-most crowded trade on the planet in the latest installment of BofAML’s closely-watched Global Fund Manager survey,…
The global equity market correction has driven a reset in a number of market metrics such as sentiment (both economic sentiment and investor sentiment), fund flows, positioning, volatility, and of particular interest – valuations. Yet as much as there has been a minor adjustment in valuations, a couple of things stay the same… Today’s chart…
Flat Stock Market On Monday The S&P 500 was up 0.09% as it gave back most of its gains from the morning. The Dow now has an 8 day winning streak. The Russell 2000, which is the closest major index to its all-time high, was down 0.4%. This flat market supports my thesis that the…
Copper is known as “man’s first metal”, and for over 10,000 years, it’s been used in applications ranging from architecture to coinage. However, it was Michael Faraday’s discovery of electromagnetic induction in 1831 that turned demand on its head for the red metal. As the world used more and more electricity, copper became known as…
There’s now just a .13 yield bump to buy a 30-year over a 10-year treasury bond, and the 10-year is yielding more than S&P 500 stocks with their 30-year+ duration and huge principle risk. Capital is finally being paid to come in the risk curve, look out below. Here is my partner Cory Venable’s spread…
The pace of employment cuts in the service sector is accelerating. It’s difficult to discern given the incessant headlines lamenting the dearth of skilled workers, but something is amiss in the powerhouse U.S. services sector, which accounts for some 80 percent of the economy. The headline figures say very little. The Institute for Supply Management’s April survey of…
The April month-over-month export counts were much stronger than last month and the year-to-date exports are up 4.6 %. Analyst Opinion of Container Movements Simply looking at this month versus last month – the growth rates were stronger for both exports and imports. The year-to-date and the rolling averages are positive for imports and exports…
Macy’s (M) is expected to report earnings Wednesday before market open. The whisper number is $0.34, three cents short of the analysts’ estimates and showing no confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $0.30 to a high of $0.37. A year ago the company reported earnings of $0.24, ten cents short…
Mega retailer Wal-Mart (WMT – Free Report) is set to release first-quarter fiscal 2019 results on May 17, before the market opens. After posting sluggish results for fourth-quarter fiscal 2018 results due to the slowdown in e-commerce sales, it is worth taking a look at its fundamentals ahead of its latest results. The stock has been beaten…
