High-level negotiators from the United States, Mexico and Canada failed to find common ground during Friday’s talks about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), leaving analysts wondering whether an agreement will be reached before the May 17 deadline. The deadline, set by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan, was chosen to give ample…
Trump promised to rein in drug prices. It was his only sensible campaign promise. But the plan he announced Friday does little but add another battering ram to his ongoing economic war against America’s allies. He calls it “American patients first,” and takes aim at what he calls “foreign freeloading.” The plan will pressure foreign countries…
Oh my, oh May, oh me. What’s happening with respect to Gold? Nothing. To be sure, there have been some good earnings pops among the miners, but specific to the price of the yellow metal itself, the month of May thus far has been one big nothing. That said, the good news is — given our recent missives…
Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession. Following last week’s state-level GDP release for 2017Q4 and Philadelphia Fed indices from a week and a half ago — it’s likely no recession occurred, and is currently not occurring. Figure 1: California GDP in millions of Ch.2009$ SAAR (blue, left log scale), California coincident index (red,…
Reports on the Shale Revolution rarely discuss its impact on U.S. energy security, but with little fanfare it’s affording the U.S. greater geopolitical flexibility. The Administration’s decision last week to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal was made without significant regard to the ensuing reduction in Iranian oil exports. Successive U.S. presidents back to Richard…
EUR/USD fell to new 2018 lows but managed to bounce after the US Dollar suffered its own disappointing data. What’s next? GDP and inflation figures stand out. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. German factory orders fell by 0.9% and added to the misery while the…
On Friday, President Trump unveiled his much-anticipated plan to control drug prices in the U.S. During his presidential campaign, Trump had promised to take on the big drug companies and it was feared that the plan would include provisions that would hurt profits in the pharmaceutical industry. As the president began speaking, the stock prices…
Talking Points: Light economic calendar next week; S&P trying to put thoughts of a top to rest German & Eurozone GDP, ZEW figures due out; can the rally last? BoE held on rates, FTSE rallied; record highs lie ahead S&P 500 Next week’s economic calendar is light with no ‘high’ impact data releases scheduled. Headlines out of Washington remain for…
US ethylene spot prices are tumbling as the major new shale gas expansions come on line, as the chart based on ICIS pricing data confirms: They began the year at $617/t, but have since more than halved to $270/t on Friday They are only around 10% higher than their all-time low of $240/t…
The economic calendar is normal, but there will be a lot of competing news – Korean talks, China negotiations, and the Trump legal team’s announcement about whether the President will meet with Special Counsel Mueller. And those are just the items we know about. Sometimes there are great themes that do not get the deserved…
