Listen, there’s a lot of debate going on right now about late-cycle dynamics. Chief among market participants’ concerns is the flattening curve, which some folks contend is trying to warn us that a recession is lurking in a dark alley a couple of blocks up the street, just waiting on us to walk by so…
“See these eyes so red Red like jungle burning bright Those who feel me near Pull the blinds and change their minds” David Bowie I woke up last Friday, with this song in my head. I cannot help but think about this third (and maybe last) attempt for the market to gain legs on the back of Granddad…
Talking Points: Jobs and wages data may give clues on UK domestic inflation. Sterling likely to be kept in check by a strong USD complex. Continued EUR weakness one option for Sterling bulls Fundamental forecast for GBP: Neutral A roller-coaster ride for GBP over the last month ended on Thursday when the Bank of England kept all policy measures unchanged…
The ultimate signal for investors looking for the next recession is the yield curve. The chart below shows the difference between the 30 year yield and the 5 year yield. At the pace the yield curve is flattening, it will be inverted by August or September. To be clear, you can’t just extrapolate current moves…
French manufacturing fell 1.8% in the first quarter. Industrial Production fell 1.2%, the worst start in 6 years. First Germany, Now France The eurozone recovery is faltering, first with Germany, now with France. French Factories Suffer Worst Quarterly Output Drop Since 2012. Germany In February, German Industrial Output fell by 1.6 percent after rising by a revised…
Here we are again. The stock market looks like it is breaking free, but there are major caveats which keep me wary and sitting on a neutral short-term trading call. First the positive developments. The S&P 500 (SPY) managed to follow-through on its breakout above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Sure the index gained a…
The earnings focus shifts to the Retail sector this week as traditional brick-and-mortar retailers come out with quarterly results. Stocks of most of these traditional operators have done better than the broader markets this year, except for Wal-Mart (WMT) which reports before the market’s open on Thursday and whose stock has been a notable laggard since the…
Dollar/CAD suffered from Trump’s move on the Iran deal and as oil priced sold the fact. What’s next? The double-feature inflation and retail sales reports stand out. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The US is abandoning the Iran nuclear deal and imposing sanctions on the country. This pushed oil prices…
FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR GOLD PRICE: NEUTRAL Gold Analysis and Talking Points: Gold prices post weekly rise as the USD Index pulls back The precious metal set for a quieter week amid a light economic calendar GOLD PRICES SEES ITS FIRST WEEKLY RISE IN A MONTH Gold prices sees its first weekly rise in a month, gaining over 1.5% as…
