The biggest debates I have are with gold bugs. They believe endless money printing will inevitably lead to hyperinflation and that will push the gold price over $5,000 an ounce while sinking the dollar to near zero. They are (and have been), quite simply, wrong! Japan has already proven that money printing doesn’t lead to much higher…
It was around 10 years ago that the wheels fell off the housing boom in the United States and the Great Recession took its toll on the country. For many, this was the first time in their lives where they were impacted so harshly from an array of financial fronts. Not only was it near…
Indexes For This Cycle The Citi Economic Surprise Index is like the CNN Fear and Greed Index in that I usually disagree with its assertions. They are both overly sensitive to changes in the market. I may be biased when reviewing these data points because I always compare the extremes with the financial crisis. For…
The British Pound has been in meltdown mode for the past three weeks, following rate hike expectations every step of the way. On April 19, odds of a 25-bps hike at the May policy meeting were still at 85%, and GBP/USD above 1.4300. But since then, GBP/USD has dropped closer to 1.3500, culminating in the BOE’s May…
With all the controversies over the US imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum (discussed here and here, for example), it’s perhaps useful to consider an overview of what import restraints the US economy already has in place, and what effects they have had. Every three or four years, the US International Trade Commission publishes a report called: “The…
Yelp Inc. (YELP – Free Report) just released its first quarter financial results, posting a loss of $0.03 per share and revenues of $223.07 million. Yelp is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which is subject to change based on today’s results. Shares of Yelp have skyrocketed 69% over the last year and are up roughly 9.7%…
After a period of very slow trading, the prompt month natural gas contract saw a trading range of 11.1 cents today, its largest since February 21st. Trading ranges had been historically low recently as the market coiled, with today’s move now fitting right in with past years. Prices initially traded lower only to then shoot…
This week we look at the earnings outlook for emerging markets (EM) and developed markets (DM) – on both fronts I am specifically using the MSCI indexes, i.e. the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and the MSCI World Index (as distinct from the MSCI ACWI). For the consensus earnings estimates I am using the Thomson Reuters…
In our last commentary on the Japanese yen, we wrote that the currency was looking excessively weak against the euro. In particular, we stated that bullish catalysts driving EUR/JPY were at risk as speculator positioning in both long euro and short yen trades were looking extreme. In addition, we flagged changes to the Bank of Japan’s…
