The speculators are at it again in the oil market, pushing up prices beyond the fundamentals. Sure the market is tighter than it was two years ago, but one look at gasoline inventories tells you there are more than ample petroleum supplies. In fact, we have more gasoline inventories than a year ago, and we…
Friday’s action didn’t bring about the bounce I would have liked after Thursday’s picture-perfect defenses of lead moving averages or support. The S&P closed with a bearish black candlestick on a spike high above the 50-day MA. Volume climbed in accumulation as On-Balance-Volume triggered a ‘buy’ signal. I would see this as a bearish close and…
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 26, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 355.3k, down 4.1k. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – rose 1.96 percent year-over-year in May. This is as good as two percent. The last time it rose with a two handle was in April 2012. …
Most people today know at least some things about cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, and understand that there is a huge earning potential associated with them. The truth is that we might very well be looking at the future of money. Since the potential is so high, buying cryptocurrency does seem to be a very lucrative…
Investors and traders were quite optimistic early Friday, as the Dow Industrials soared close to 300 points in early trading. For a few hours, it seemed that many had forgotten the heavy selling that occurred on Monday. In my view, it was the decline on Monday that set the tone for the entire week, and…
The top 3 is the same as it was in February 2018. Korea tops the list driven by strong earnings momentum and cheap valuation No. 2 China, has strong price momentum Thailand is driven by solid fundamentals and low price volatility
Printing / borrowing money to generate the unsustainable illusion of “growth” sets up the collapse of the entire Keynesian edifice. Of the many delusions of modern economics, perhaps the greatest is that the dominant Keynesian model reflects permanent dynamics of advanced economies. Economics, along with other social sciences, makes an implicit claim that its econometric claims…
Stanphyl Capital June 2018 letter to investors on Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) The fund was absolutely massacred this month, and it was primarily due to our large short position in Tesla, to which I added on each new piece of negative news, much of which was indicative of the kind of outright fraud (see below) that…
Remember Mario Draghi’s “fallen angel” demons? Back in January, the ECB liquidated its entire position in Steinhoff after the company’s bonds plunged following a high profile accounting scandal. That episode was embarrassing for the ECB to the extent it laid bare the inherent dangers in indiscriminately buying up ostensibly “safe” IG corporate bonds. But perhaps more importantly, it…
Dollar/yen made a cautious move to the upside as trade war fears were subsided quite quickly. Can this last? A busy start to the week features the FOMC Minutes, the NFP, some surveys from Japan, and the recurring theme of trade wars. USD/JPY fundamental movers – Some relief in the trade wars The Trump Administration made threats against the…
