Monetary Velocity, an oft-misunderstood metric that quantifies the pace at which money is spent, has recently shown signs of rising after trending lower for the better part of the last decade. Since increasing velocity is frequently associated with inflation, it comes as no surprise the Federal Reserve (Fed) has upped their vigilance towards…
The Bank of England held interest rates on Thursday and said weak growth during a snowy start to 2018 was likely to be only temporary, but it wanted to see a pick-up in the economy in the next few months before raising borrowing costs. In our opinion a rate hike in August is likely. U….
VIX closed below 14 yesterday for the first time since February 1, 2018. This study examines what happens next to the stock market (historically) when VIX closes below 14 for the first time in at least 3 months. Here are the historical dates: March 21, 2016 January 4, 2013 August 13, 2012 June 23, 2004…
Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised level of 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,000, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 221,500. This is…
AXA Equitable Holdings (EQH), the U.S. arm of French insurance giant AXA Group, will IPO on Thursday, May 10. At a price range of $24 to $27 per share, the company plans to raise $3.5 billion, which would make it the largest US IPO since Alibaba (BABA) in 2014. Despite its size, EQH has attracted…
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NVIDIA reports earnings tonight with a webcast at 5 PM. They had a blowout quarter and guide last quarter. We expect a good quarter and a higher guide but there are some special catalysts that can help this stock break out to new highs with conviction.Here’s Almost All That Matters… Gaming Crypto-NVIDIA-bears thought that Gaming’s Q4 strength was driven by…
(Thanks to Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler for including one of my emails to him in a column consisting of reader reponses while he tended to his wife who, as he reports, suffered a fainting spell. We wish both of them well, of course.) Do we need a recession or another credit event similar to 2008 to…
One of the biggest surprises of 2017 was the fact that the euro exchange rate measured against the U.S. dollar appreciated 14%—only about 7% behind the performance of the S&P 500 Index over the same period.1 The Consequence: European Equities Look Quite Attractive (7/31/12–4/30/2018) This spread illustrates one consequence of a central bank policy divergence, as the 10-year…
Oil has taken off like a rocket as Israel strikes Iranian targets in Syria in response to rocket fire overnight. Israel says it targeted Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria, in response to an Iranian rocket attack on the occupied Golan Heights. This comes as Iran lashes out in every direction in response to the U.S. backing…
