Unless we are headed into a hyper-inflationary period such as that we saw in the mid-1970s and early 1980s. Inflation and Interest Rates This is a nuanced situation. Most people writing about inflation and rates or programming computers that implement trading programs to react to news that might change their trajectory do not get the…
The EUR/USD starts the new week with new falls amid weak euro-zone figures. After a not-so-great US Non-Farm Payrolls report, the Dollar bulls may be losing steam. The technical picture remains bearish with a touch of oversold conditions. The EUR/USD started the first full week of May by resuming its falls, trading around $1.1930. While…
After a stormy winter for the broad market and clean energy stocks, including my picks, March and April brought relative calm. Better yet, my model portfolio has rebounded from its February lows, although its benchmarks (SDY for the broad market of income stocks and YLCO for clean energy income stocks) have mostly been treading water. The gains were led by two…
Whatever happened to that whole “reflation” trade theme that everyone seemed to be talking about a year ago? Well, judging by some of the charts in this blog, it looks like the reflation theme is still very much well and alive, with traders displaying extreme confidence in the reflationary outlook. It also seems as though…
Monday’s swing-trades: Take a look at three trading ideas to prep you for the next trading session. Long Cisco (CSCO) Long Oasis Petroleum (OAS) Short Continental Resources (CLR)
USD/CAD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.2803 and 1.2917. The price action in the range is likely consolidation for the uptrend from 1.2526. As long as 1.2803 support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume and further rise to 1.3100 area is still possible after the consolidation. On the downside, a breakdown…
After opening the day on a positive note, stock markets in India have continued their momentum. Sectoral indices are trading on a positive note with stocks in the consumer durables sector and metal sector witnessing maximum buying interest. The BSE Sensex is trading up 131 points (up 0.4%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 46 points (up 0.4%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up…
I’ve been building more quantitative trading models recently. I know that some hedge funds calculate the stock market’s “fair value” and then trade around that fair value. For the record, this is not what I do with the Medium-Long Term Model. This “fair value” is usually “the stock market’s average P/E ratio during certain market environments”….
We share the details of our valuation of Alphabet on an Earnings Power Value basis, apply the IW Box framework, and reiterate our view that the investment opportunity is compelling. We estimate Alphabet’s earnings power yield (5.5% without Other Bets) and advance it as “the Google hurdle”, or the opportunity cost for tech investments with…
Oil prices surpassed their three-year highs on Monday as supplies remained tight and traders waited for news regarding the possibility of fresh U.S. sanctions against Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump has set this coming Saturday, May 12, as the date by which European nations must fix their deal with Iran over its nuclear program. If…
