Author Archives: Darren Marchal

9 May 2015 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Averages Again Imp

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 265,000 to 280,000 (consensus 276,000) vs the 264,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 279,500 (reported last week as 279,500) to…

Government Debt Driving Chicago The Way Of Detroit

Can the economic health of the nation’s largest cities tell us anything about the health of the greater economy? Perhaps. On Tuesday, Moody’s downgraded Chicago’s credit rating to junk level. The downgrade comes in response to the city’s growing pension liabilities, paired with a new Illinois state court ruling that public pensions cannot be cut…

A Bullish Scenario For Stocks

While we make decisions based on observable evidence (rather than forecasting), it is always a good idea to understand bullish and bearish possibilities. One bullish scenario that could enable the broad market to break from its recent ten-month period of consolidation (see red arrows in chart above) goes something like this: If you were concerned…

Dow Theory Update…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has remained range bound since Thanksgiving and it currently trades near the top of this trading range. However in the middle of all of this there are some divergences that are worth noting. As both of the other components that make up the Dow Theory (Transports and Utilities) trade near…

Producer Price Index For Final Demand Hits A New Low

Today’s release of the March Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at -0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted. That follows the previous month’s 0.2% increase. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at -0.2% month-over-month following a 0.2% change the month before.The Investing.com forecasts were for 0.2% headline and 0.1% core. The year-over-year change…