Do stocks always fall after crude crashes? Not always, but you will have to consider modern finance this time? Modern finance Hedging protection Debt and derivatives blow-ups associated with Oil companies Percentage of economic growth lost verses benefit of cheaper oil. As always, timing is the factor. How much pain will be felt before we…
Technological advancements always empower people to behave differently – what makes today different is that the rate of technological advancement is accelerating beyond our capacity, perhaps even our ability, to react – and this… is new. Societal norms, laws, strategy and tactics have generally lagged behind technological advancement. Coast-to-coast communication in 1815 was measured in horse…
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Just 13 short months ago — two months before then President Yanukovich was ousted — Russia lent Ukraine $3 billion (by buying their Eurobonds). As Reuters reports, the terms of that loan included a condition that Ukraine’s total state debt should not exceed 60% of its GDP. As of last month, based on Moody’s estimates,Ukraine has violated…
The Pacific Basin countries constitute one of the world’s most diverse and economically vibrant regions. Among its inherent strengths are considerable technological capabilities and a growing pool of savings. Prominent centers of production and fast growing potential markets in this part of the world also ensure that it is an exciting investment destination. With a…
Gail Tverberg offers her view on possible ramifications of the severe drop in prices for oil and debt financed growth: There are really two different problems that a person can be concerned about: Peak oil: the possibility that oil prices will rise, and because of this production will fall in a rounded curve. Substitutes that are possible…
In early December 2014, I unveiled my Dividend Death Watch, a list of energy stocks and master limited partnerships (MLPs) with dividend sustainability issues. Well, the axe has already fallen… Last week, Linn Energy LLC (LINE) and Breitburn Energy Partners LP (BBEP) each cut their distributions by over 50% … and more cuts are sure to follow. Hopefully, the unfolding energy…
2015 is going to be the year of the strong dollar and rising interest rates in the US. This, in combination with the absence of inflationary pressure, will make is so that different precious metals will have a tough year, in Morgan Stanley’s opinion. The investment bank also underlined that it expects the gold price…
I have spent the majority of my life outside the USA. My view of the world is very different than most all people both in and outside the USA. One thing I have learned — that the perceptions or conclusions of a non-native writing on a country are almost certainly wrong. The facts discussed by non-natives…
The Dow held our Weekly Bearish Reversal at 17722. We warned that “The main bank of support begins at the 16300 area. A weekly closing beneath 17722 will shift the market into a basing mode.” There appears to be in place a consolidation phase with the Dow churning back and forth until May. We did…
