Author Archives: Darren Marchal

S&P Rallies Past 38% Retracement

Well, I got this one wrong. I didn’t think the S&P had the juice to put in the day that it did, although volume was perhaps a little disappointing. Volume did enough to register an accumulation day, although buying volume was well down on previous selling volume. In terms of technicals, only On-Balance-Volume generated a…

US Housing

I am wondering why the rate of US house construction remains so low. I see two candidate explanations. The first is that lending standards remain very tight — the mortgage lenders having been very badly burnt once remain twice shy. The other is that potential house buyers no longer perceive owner occupied housing to be…

One Little Word

My dogs are telling me that there are squirrels running loose in the neighborhood that must be pursued, so I’ll make this quick. All it took was one little word – “catastrophic” – from a Fed governor to send the markets into a bullish orgy today. It wasn’t a good day for me, but I…

Dividend Stocks: The Complete Guide

Investing in a stock means you have bought a small piece of ownership of that business. Dividend stocks differ from normal stocks in that they pay you for owning them.  When a company elects to pay dividends, they are giving a portion of company profits to the owners. Stocks that reward their owners with actual cash…

Resurgence Of Effective Demand

We are seeing a resurgence of effective demand from both long term yields (borrowing costs) and headline inflation falling. What if 10-year yields fall to 1.6% by 2nd quarter 2015? And what if headline inflation falls to -0.5% by 2nd Q too? (Barclays is predicting negative headline inflation through 2015, Matthew B tweet.) I graph what…