Author Archives: Darren Marchal

The Burning Questions For 2015

Louis Gave is one of my favorite investment and economic thinkers, besides being a good friend and an all-around fun guy. When he and his father Charles and the well-known European journalist Anatole Kaletsky decided to form Gavekal some 15 years ago, Louis moved to Hong Kong, as they felt that Asia and especially China…

The Burning Questions For 2015

Louis Gave is one of my favorite investment and economic thinkers, besides being a good friend and an all-around fun guy. When he and his father Charles and the well-known European journalist Anatole Kaletsky decided to form Gavekal some 15 years ago, Louis moved to Hong Kong, as they felt that Asia and especially China…

Forex Forecast: Quant Vs Chart Reading

Quantitative Forecast Academic studies have shown that the most reliable way to determine future price movements from past price movements, is by use of momentum. In the Forex market, a momentum study is best applied to the four major Forex currency pairs by simply checking whether the weekly close is above or below the weekly…

EC Supply, Dem

A few weeks ago I offered some calculations suggesting that lower demand for oil might account for about $20/barrel of the dramatic decline in the price of oil since last summer. Here I point to some other evidence consistent with that conclusion. Last week the IMF’s Rabah Arezki and Olivier Blanchard produced a very useful assessment of…

5 Best Performing Dividend Stocks Of 2014

Dividend stocks have gained popularity and have been on the rise this year on investors’ drive for higher income in the current ultra-low rate environment. Additionally, the dividend paying securities are the major sources of consistent income for investors when returns from equity market are at risk. While the broad U.S. equity market have hit…

GBP/USD Q1 2015 Forecast

The GBP/USD pair has had a very negative run for a couple of months now, and as a result I believe that the bearish pressure will continue. As I write this article, the 1.55 level is being tested for support, and it could very well offer a significant amount of buying pressure. However, it appears that this…

Yellen Capital LP Was ‘Half-Right’ In H2 2014

On July 15th 2014, The Federal Reserve uttered the following warning to exuberant equity investors, “Valuation metrics in some sectors do appear substantially stretched — particularly those for smaller firms in the social-media and biotechnology industries.” 5 months later, Yellen Capital LP is half right…       As Bloomberg reports, Social-media shares declined after the report, as…