“Unequivocally” not good. Following last week’s surge in initial jobless claims for ‘Shale’ states, Baker Hughes confirms rig counts continue to tumble. The last two weeks have seen the total U.S. rig count fall the most since 2009 (and Canada down 9.3% this week alone). Seemingly confirming this weakness, The Kansas City Fed notes respondents see non-durable (petroleum) demand…
by Erik McCurdy The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the U.S. dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latestintermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast. Click to see complete picture at John Lund Photography. technical The index closed moderately lower Tuesday (16 December 2014), beginning a test of support at the lower…
Despite a full-blown currency crisis in Russia and increasingly volatile markets in the U.S., the price of gold has hardly moved. The yellow metal dropped considerably in November and has been almost flat in the last 30 days. It remains close to the $1,200 per ounce level. If it closed there, gold would be looking at a…
Wall Street is still looking strong and the odds are high that this trend will continue throughout 2015. Stock market investors can count on the currency market as well, as U.S. stocks are profiting from the strong dollar. What else do they need to take into account? Specifically for stock portfolios stability, growth,…
With little fresh news during the holidays and many pros on vacation, I expect a time of reflection and prediction. Publications hungry for content and TV producers needing to fill slots will highlight forecasts of any and all flavors. This happens every year, but the mid-week holidays are pushing it a little earlier than usual,…
It seems the one primary area that people disagree with the view of the future is the rise in the dollar that is on the horizon. I have warned that in discussions behind the curtain, there will be a move to replace the dollar as the reserve currency. I have also stated that the only possible…
Recently, President Barack Obama announced that the U.S. intends to normalize its diplomatic and economic relations with Cuba, which has been considerably strained since 1961. Although the U.S. Congress can completely lift the broad legal restriction on trade between the nations, Obama’s announcement indicates that agricultural, banking and financial institutions and telecommunications industries will gain…
by Erik McCurdy The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast. technical Yields closed sharply lower Tuesday (16 December 2014), returning to previous lows of the downtrend from April. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a…
In October it was Jim Bullard’s “QE4” hint that sent the stock market on an all-time record-breaking run of gains, which no lesser institution than the central banker’s central bank – The BIS – lamented “the markets’ buoyancy hinges on central banks’ every word and deed.” And then just two days ago, the Fed did it again….
Falling oil prices have been making all the news, but what are the positives for American consumers? Although oil prices began to decline in early August, the drop became more significant after September 30th. The Thanksgiving Day decision by OPEC oil ministers to leave the organization’s oil production quota unchanged at 30 million barrels per…
