Author Archives: Darren Marchal

Bear Of The Day: Conn’s (CONN)

When the economy is humming along, extending consumers credit can help keep the wheels oiled up and running. Lending eases up across the economy from mortgages for homes to auto loans to consumer credit. Today’s Bear of the Day is a company that had been readily extending consumers credit to buy their products. The problem…

Weakest Demand For Crude In 12 Years

OPEC cut the forecast for how much crude oil it will need to provide in 2015 to the lowest in 12 years amid surging U.S. shale supplies and reduced estimates for global consumption. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its projection for 2015 by about 300,000 barrels a day, to 28.9 million a day….

Dollar Consolidates As Oil Slide Continues

The US dollar is trading within yesterday’s ranges against the major currencies. The Canadian dollar is the main exception. It is pushing lower still, with the greenback pushing a little beyond CAD1.1550. The main development today is the continued drop in oil prices.  The latest cause has been the cuts in demand forecast by OPEC and IEA. Generally softer…

The Financialized-Oil Dominoes Are Toppling

The drop in oil revenues has triggered a self-reinforcing feedback dynamic. Oil is not just something that is refined into fuel–it is capital, collateral, debt and risk. In other words, it is intrinsically financial. As I noted in The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 2: The Financialization of Oil, oil has been financialized to the point that few outside…

Asian Equities Higher On US Lead

Asian stocks advanced, following U.S. stocks higher on better-than-estimated retail sales in the world’s biggest economy. Oil in New York extended declines below $60 a barrel. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.7 percent by 1:51 p.m. in Tokyo, paring the biggest weekly decline since Oct. 17 as Japanese shares gained before elections this weekend….

T2108 Update – An Unusual Surge In Volatility As Sellers Score An...

T2108 Status: 44.6%T2107 Status: 45.2%VIX Status: 18.5 (8.4% increase after jumping 24.5% the day before)General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold. Caveats listed below.Active T2108 periods: Day #38 over 20%, Day #36 over 30%, Day #33 over 40%, Day #2 under 50% (underperiod), Day #6 under 60%, Day #108 under 70% Reference Charts (click for view of last…

Symmetric Application Of Dynamic Scoring

Republicans are keen to sacrifice CBO’s role as impartial arbiter of fiscal measures on the altar of “dynamic scoring” of tax measures.[0] But there is no economic reason for restricting this approach to only tax measures.   First, on tax measures, from Jane Gravelle in a Congressional Research Service review of the policy literature: Economists were attracted to…