Investors are always jittery about the risks associated with their investments. Mutual funds, stocks, bonds or ETFs, none of them are ever devoid of risks. A Bull rally may be interrupted anytime and drag a portfolio down. Also, markets may witness volatility; creating further doubts in investors’ minds if fundamental factors can alone justify their…
I am of the opinion that the economy is overshooting its natural sustainable level at the moment. There are problems that can occur from that. Below I give a warning from the field of Population Ecology. Stocks are rising to records partly on the back of a lower labor share in 3rd quarter 2014, which…
The cure for high prices is high prices. The cure for low prices is low prices. That is the message from the hog cycle. When porkers are cheap fewer piglets are raised and a few years later the price of pigmeat rebounds. When pork is pricey too many piglets are raised and the market price…
Just wondering — where is Ed Lazear when you need him? Figure 1: Log nonfarm payroll employment normalized on 2009M06 trough (blue), and on 2001M11 trough (red). NBER defined troughs. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. Normalizing on beginning of administrations yields this figure. Figure 2: Log nonfarm payroll employment normalized on 2009M01 beginning of Obama administration…
“Now listen to the first three aims of the corporatist movement in Germany, Italy and France during the 1920s. These were developed by the people who went on to become part of the Fascist experience: (1) shift power directly to economic and social interest groups; (2) push entrepreneurial initiative in areas normally reserved for public…
QUESTION: Martin, While I clearly understand your reasoning for deflation in the US allied to a very strong dollar; does the opposite apply to those countries, like the UK and European economies where their currencies are likely going into freefall? Keep up the brilliant work. Is the movie coming to the UK? AB ANSWER: Yes….
The reason there is a terrible financial cataclysm ahead is that mainstream thinking has degenerated into outright quackery. Just read the drivel coming from financial journalists and pundits these days; and recall that the latter are little more than repeaters and amplifiers, passing along to their readers what politicians and policymakers are thinking and saying. Take the case of Clive Crook,…
Today’s US employment report was the best in years. 300,000+ new jobs, rising wages, fewer people dropping out of the workforce, the whole package. Very hopeful. And also curious, since the rest of the world seems to be moving in the other direction. Consider: British workers suffer biggest real-wage fall of major G20 countries ECB Sharply Cuts…
“Backed not only by his party but by thousands who had belonged to other parties or belonged to no party at all, Andrew Jackson was compelled to fight every inch of the way for the ideals and the policies of the Democratic Republic which was his ideal. An overwhelming proportion of the material power of…
And I don’t mean in stocks, although a possible ramp job (ref. Semi and Bio momentum) has been part of the plan there as well. NFTRH first introduced the Machine Tools data per the graph below from EDA a couple months ago after I talked with a former associate who advised that equipment sales were soft. But…
