The national debt of the United States officially surpassed $18 trillion this past week. The news has been making the rounds of every media outlet, with many economists reminding us of the very shaky footing of the U.S. economy. However, there are other analysts who play down this outrageously irresponsible amount of debt. In his…
Well, although there are mixed opinions about our friends in Gainesville, one thing they’ve gotten absolutely right is US dollar strength. Prechter’s contention for a bull market in the dollar has been well-documented. It’s remarkable to me that a country over $18 trillion in debt can be seen as the Hercules of the fiscal world,…
The decline in energy prices has increasingly become important for consumers, investors, and policy makers. Here are nine essays I have written in recent weeks that analyze what is going on; integrating political and economic analysis, geopolitics and game theory. These series of essays also illustrate how my thinking has evolved through the analysis and subsequent…
US Census says manufacturing new orders declined. Our analysis agrees. The data has been soft for three months in a row. Consider that this data is noisy – but the rolling averages (which include transport) are decelerating. 3 Month Rolling Average – Unadjusted Manufacturing New Orders (blue line), Inflation Adjusted New Orders from the Unadjusted…
My recent articles on security here at TalkMarkets have been designed to warn investors about the growing cyber security threat. I continue to illuminate the issue because I know the potential for not doing so can lead to a lot of market pain for companies and individuals alike. So we press on with the latest…
As we enter the final month of the year, the markets advance got me thinking about something known as the “Unstoppable Force Paradox.” While you may not be familiar with the name, you will certainly know the definition which questions “What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?” Even Frank Sinatra sang about it in “Something’s Gotta…
Note from dshort: I’ve updated this analysis to include today’s release of the November Employment Report. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There…
Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (SWHC – Snapshot Report) reported second-quarter fiscal 2015 (ending Oct 31, 2014) earnings from continuing operations of 9 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2 cents. The number was, however, lower than the year-ago earnings of 28 cents per share as sales remained weak. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation –…
Consider: European stocks just closed at their highest since Jan 2008; Spanish bond yields hit a record low 1.803% and Spanish youth unemployment hovers near a record high 53.8%; Italian bond yields hit a record low 1.72% and Italian youth unemployment is at a record 43.3%. So once again we ask, why exactly does Europe need…
Everyday I receive anguished emails from concerned citizens regarding the state of the economy, Wall Street, the political-financial system, and how their future stability is impacted by the powers that be. This one stood out for its clarity, as well as being indicative of one of the many ways in which the banking system regularly…
