Two years ago it was hard to find analysts who expected average GDP growth over the rest of this decade to be less than 8%. The current consensus seems to have dropped to between 6% and 7% on average. I don’t think Beijing disagrees. After assuring us Tuesday that China’s economy – which is growing a little…
It seems the bond market is telling us something but if you want to hear it you’ll need to bend your ear toward the junk bond spread. High yield, or junk, bonds are the canaries in our economic coal mine. Often, changes in the spread between junk bond and ten-year Treasury yields prefigure gyrations in…
McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) continues to affirm its support for kid’s nutrition with the introduction of a fresh whole side option that specifically targets families. Starting this holiday season, kid-sized Sun Pacific Cuties (clementines) will partner McDonald’s lineup for its line of Happy and Mighty Kids Meal’s The new choices will include apple slices and Go-GURT…
Christmas is big, no doubt about it. How big depends on what type of retail. Highest honors for big holiday volume goes to sporting goods, electronics, and clothing, but general merchandise and non-store retailers (like Amazon) are close behind. Lower holiday season sales occur at car dealers, building materials stores and gas stations. The easy…
Photo Credit: [email protected] I’ve been busier than ever of late — not much time to blog. Thus, a few notes: 1) Often the rate of change in a price can tell you something, particularly if the good in question is widely traded/held by a wide number of parties with different interests. In this…
I have often wondered whether the very low level of Private Residential Investment (also known as building houses) in the USA is due to unusually low expectations of long term increases in home prices. Here, I add that I would guess that the change was and end of the belief that the relative prices of…
Shares of Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) popped as much as 12% in pre-market trading today after Otsuka Pharmaceuticals (OTSKF) announced that it will pay $3.5 billion to acquire the company, $17 per share. The boards of both companies have approved the deal and the official tender offer for all outstanding shares will be out within 10…
With a market capitalization of around $16 trillion, the NYSE Composite Index is a massively broad equity indicator less affected by the day to day gyrations of AAPL, TSLA, BABA, or NFLX. As NewEdge’s Brad Wishak remarks, the world’s largest market cap equity index is painting a very different picture than that of the Dow or…
Lots of interesting chart levels today: As you can see from our Big Chart, the damage has been done over the past week as the Russell has once again failed at the Must Hold line, as has the NYSE and now we’re watching 17,600 very closely on both the Dow and the Nikkei (which we’re shorting…
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 227,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s November update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median projection is marginally below October’s increase. Compared with a pair of consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists,…
