The petroyuan has launched. Let’s investigate its success or lack thereof, primarily the latter. Economist and book author Daniel Lacalle pretty much sees things the way I do regarding the petroyuan hype. Lacalle compiled some amusing stats in his post on the Petroyuan’s Lacklustre Birth. Crash at Birth Every time I read that the yuan…
The latter part of this week was interesting to the extent the resurgence of the inflation narrative seemed to be at least partially responsible for a (probably fleeting) reversal of the previously inexorable flattening of the curve. 2s10s steepened for three straight sessions to close the week, rising from a mere 41bp on Wednesday –…
Natural gas had a volatile week. Friday closed at previous week’s levels and buying volumes haven’t picked up and winter withdrawals weren’t that large. We are still selling rallies, therefore, we are looking for opportunity in the 2.80 or 2.90 level. At this point we do not want to buy this market, not unless…
A recent article on the predictive abilities yield curves (Shrager/Quartz) includes a nifty interactive which allows you to look at yield curves over time. Below, I do a snapshot comparison, across the world. Figure 1: Ten year-three month term spread (blue bars), as of 9 July 2016. China observation is Five year-three month term spread. Euro ten year…
The fact that the Zacks Airline industry declined 2.5% in the first quarter of the year highlights the fact the sector is not bereft of headwinds, despite positives such as increasing financial prosperity and the new tax law. Let’s take a look at the factors responsible for the disappointing price performance. Weather-Related Disruptions Rule Stocks in the…
FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR THE US DOLLAR: BULLISH US Dollar vaults higher as Fed rate hike speculation heats up Continued gains likely if first-quarter GDP data outperforms Macro and Merkel visit Trump, Mexico holds president debate The US Dollar has launched a spirited recovery, producing the largest upswing in nearly three months last week. The move was…
This week is a review of where we have been and a look forward as to what may happen next. First, let’s rewind the tape to the beginning of March. “Most importantly, the market is currently in the process of building a consolidation pattern as shown by the ‘red’ triangle below. Whichever direction the market…
About 18 months ago, I made a bearish case for Acacia Communications (ACIA) based on the timing, pricing, and nature of a secondary stock offering that was sandwiched between ACIA’s optimistic earnings guidance and subsequent news that major customer ZTE Corp. significantly reduced its guidance. The stock has never been the same and has drifted lower ever…
