The US dollar was broadly higher last week. It seemed as if the inexorable rise in US interest rates may be beginning to give it some traction. The US 10-year yield made a marginal new four-year high, creeping closer to 3%, while the US premium over Germany surpassed 300 bp for the first time. The Dollar Index’s…
“Rebalancing remains at the forefront of Chinese and global policy debates…Notwithstanding the rise in global trade protectionism, the somewhat forgotten news these days is that there has been a large correction in China’s current account surplus, which has averaged a rather modest 1.9% of GDP over the past five years, compared to a peak of…
VIX declined to a late Master Cycle low on April 17, then proceeded to rally above Intermediate-term support at 16.81. VIX is now on a buy signal. (ZeroHedge) When Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist Michael Wilson released his 2018 equity outlook earlier this year, one particular observation struck us: a curious correlation between volatility and the…
Last week started strong with new highs outnumbering new lows by good margins. Those numbers deteriorated through the week ending with new lows outnumbering new highs by significant margins. – From Mike Burk’s weekly blog I don’t like stocks at the moment, and the two charts below show the major reason why. Volume is with…
As we have entered the Q1 reporting cycle, seasoned investors will be on the lookout for stocks with steadfast earnings growth. After all, if the company doesn’t make money, it won’t last over the long haul. Consider a company’s revenues over a stipulated time frame, subtract the cost of production and you have earnings. This…
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 17, 2018. 10-year note Currently net short 371.7k, up 41.1k. The Treasury yield curve once again is the talk of the town. The yield spread between 10- and two-year notes fell to 41 basis points Tuesday.This was the lowest since October 2007. It closed the week…
The problems of Deutsche Bank (DB), which fired its own Herr Mueller last week, are not yet at an end. Yesterday an erroneous transfer from the German bank to an outside account went out, to pay the equivalent $35 billion. The recipient was honest and told the bank about the money received so it could…
The investment media is swirling with anxious prognostications about whether a recession and a Bear market in stocks are near. We received several calls and emails about that. Here is our opinion. We are in a late stage of this market, perhaps in the 11th hour. The US stock market is historically expensive with significant…
TLT long-term treasury bonds take a hit. Between them & Apple one-two punch AAPL continues to lead the decline and is leaving an ugly mark this week.
Despite reader Ed Hanson‘s comment: [T]he current Monthly EPU is at an elevated level, but it has been at this elevated level 7 out of the past 9 years. The elevated value is better described as normal for about the last decade. And his concluding admonishment: Perspective, Menzie I still believe that economic policy uncertainty as…
