Author Archives: Darren Marchal

Trade War Is The Biggest Tail Risk

Empire State Index Is Very Disappointing The general business activity reported in the April Empire State Index was ok as it fell from 22.5 to 15.8. This missed expectations for 18.2. This decline signals the manufacturing index is weakening from the rapid growth pace seen in Q1. The new orders index was even weaker as…

Strategery

Ok, this was a hell of a week in many respects and that shouldn’t exactly come as a surprise because after all: Exactly. Thank you Mr. President. Here’s how things shaped up for U.S. equities which fell hard to close things out on Friday:   Monday brought the Sean Hannity bombshell and all the jokes…

Here’s What To Watch In Crude Oil Right Now

After experiencing weakness in February and March, crude oil spiked to three-year highs in April due to geopolitical fears associated with the Syria bombing campaign as well as falling inventories. Earlier today, President Trump tweeted that OPEC was to blame for “artificially Very High!” crude oil prices, which he said are “No good and will not…

Wanted: Policies To Encourage And Enable Work In Advanced Economi

from the International Monetary Fund — this post authored by Francesco Grigoli, Zsoka Koczan, and Petia Topalova Population growth in advanced economies is slowing, life expectancy is rising, and the number of elderly people is soaring. Because older workers participate less in the labor market, the aging of the population could slow growth and, in many cases, threaten…