The Federal Reserve has been determined to create “Wealth Effects” throughout the economy since 2008, which has left the majority of Main Street on the sidelines. The Fed’s objective was to make American households feel wealthier by pushing up the valuations of stocks and bonds. However, this paper wealth mentality has worked beautifully for Wall…
Who noticed this one tiny thing on Bitcoin’s price chart: the rounded bottom in March/April of 2018? It is a small but extremely powerful signal, and it suggests that Bitcoin is back in a bull market in 2018! Many try to make cryptocurrency investing decisions very complicated, yes overcomplicated and noisy. Some refer to news articles,…
It’s February of 2016 and the stock market has rallied over 250% off the 2008 lows in an almost uninterrupted bull market. But some cracks appeared to be showing. China was looking wobbly and the market had flash crashed a few times. Emerging markets were down 30%+ from their highs. Oil had cratered from $110+…
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S improved this month – and the authors say “labor market components made negative contributions in March and bear watching in the near future.” Analyst Opinion of the Leading Economic Index Because of the significant backward revisions, I do not trust this index. This index is…
Stocks Rally Slightly On Wednesday This week has been great for equities as they rallied Wednesday again. It was a much smaller rally than the prior two days as the S&P 500 was up 0.08%. The chart below is my basic technical analysis which shows that the market has been making lower highs. The S&P 500…
Yesterday, for the umpteenth time in the last few years, we exposed the clear manipulation of VIX at the futures settlement auction – spiking VIX to favor the record long positioning of VIX futures speculators. With stocks quietly drifting sideways ahead of the US cash open this morning, VIX suddenly spiked reprising a pattern of jerky moves…
Bear markets are terrible for permabulls who just buy and hold forever. The stock market tanks 40%+ and it takes years for the stock market to recover to its previous all time high. During those years these permabulls are underwater with massive losses. However, bear markets are good for savvy long term investors and traders who…
Cornflakes and milk may or may not be getting more expensive, but some higher-profile things are rocking like it’s 1979. Houses, for example: Home prices just took the biggest jump in four years (CNBC) – Homebuyers, hold onto your wallets. The gains in home prices are getting bigger as the supply of homes for sale…
Rising yields are bad again. This is one of those stories that depends on the narrative or, more to the point, how it’s packaged. Recall that the problem in February was that rate rise ceased to be seen as a barometer of the robustness of the recovery and was instead viewed as a warning sign…
The latest Earnings Outlook shows optimism over this earnings season, with the bottom line of the S&P 500 index expected to grow 17.8% and revenues projected to rise 7.6%. Also, first-quarter earnings for the 52 S&P 500 companies, which have already released results, have posted earnings and revenues growth of 27.9% and 10.7% respectively, from the prior-year…
