There’s a big debate going on right now in the financial markets. Was January 2018 the top of this bull market? I don’t think so. Several signs and indicators suggest that the S&P 500 will at least make a higher high vs its January 2018 high before this bull market can end. Breadth did not…
UK inflation may hint a slower pace of BOE hiking, GBP/USD dropped 130 pips! Headline inflation slowed more than expected in March. The data raised a question about what might come after May, which BOE is largely expected to raise the benchmark rates. Annual CPI inflation fell to 2.5% in March from 2.7% in February….
After coming under pressure for months, the ratio of inventories to sales has slightly risen since bottoming last November. It is worth watching. US real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9 percent in 4Q17. This followed growth of 3.2 percent in 3Q17 and 3.1 percent before that. Growth in the last three quarters of 2017 came…
I last covered New York Mortgage Trust (Nasdaq: NYMT) nearly a year ago. At the time, the stock got an F for dividend safety. And unfortunately for shareholders – especially ones who like that 13% yield – the situation has gotten worse. New York Mortgage Trust is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). It borrows money short…
The Washington Post decided to give us “Finance 202” to tell us that tax cuts at this point in the business cycle are a bad idea. The gist of the argument is that the economy is approaching full employment, so there is little room left for further stimulus. The piece also tells us that because…
February was a very interesting month, wasn’t it? There was the pause or even end of the inflation hysteria driven home by “unexpected” liquidations in markets all over the world. On top of those, LIBOR-OIS blew out and all the absurd explanations put forth for it, and even outright lies. Needless to say (write), I’ve been…
Deregulatory moves, both actual and anticipated, have been hailed as spurring business fixed investment. Is there content to this assertion? A glance at nonresidential fixed investment seems to be supportive. Figure 1: Private nonresidential fixed investment, in billions of Ch.2009$, SAAR (blue). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, 2017Q4 3rd release. However, the standard…
“…I decided to fade [USD/TRY] in anticipation of the next pullback. I also hope to collect a decent amount of carry as financial markets settle down a bit with earnings in the U.S. Still, until the CBRT takes definitive action, it makes sense to short the lira in the middle of what looks like an…
Stock markets in India are presently trading marginally higher. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the metal sector and IT sector witnessing maximum buying interest. The BSE Sensex is trading up 87 points (up 0.3%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 32 points (up 0.3%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.4%, while the BSE Small Cap index is…
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market rallied during the day on Wednesday, breaking out to the upside, clearing the $68 level. By making this fresh, new high, it looks like the market is going to continue to see buyers jumping in this market, and I believe that short-term pullbacks will be thought of…
