Author Archives: Darren Marchal

The Big Four Economic Indicators: March Real Retail Sales

Note: With the release of March Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we’ve updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close…

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Netflix (NFLX) is expected to report earnings today after market close. The whisper number is $0.63, one cent behind the analysts’ estimates and showing no confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $0.59 to a high of $0.68. A year ago the company reported earnings of $0.40, in-line with the whisper…

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Goldman Sachs (GS) is expected to report earnings Tuesday before market open. The whisper number is $5.85, twenty-seven cents ahead of the analysts’ estimates and showing strong confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $5.60 to a high of $6.15. A year ago the company reported earnings of $5.15, fourteen cents…

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is expected to report earnings Tuesday before market open. The whisper number is $2.06, five cents ahead of the analysts’ estimates and showing some confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Whispers range from a low of $2.01 to a high of $2.10. A year ago the company reported earnings of $1.83, four…

Market Talk – Monday, April 16

  The main talking point in Asian trade today was the Hong Kong Dollar seeing another test of its upper band (7.85). The currency has been pegged between 7.75 and 7.85 since 1983 and has remained within that range since 1985. Today was the fifth time in three trading days that the HKMA (Hong Kong…

The Retail Sales Shortage

Retail sales rose (seasonally adjusted) in March 2018 for the first time in four months. Related to last year’s big hurricanes and the distortions they produced, retail sales had surged in the three months following their immediate aftermath and now appear to be mean reverting toward what looks like the same weak pre-storm baseline. Exactly…