Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include this morning’s Consumer Price Index news release. Back in 2010, the Fed justified its aggressive monetary policy “to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate” (full text). In effect, the Fed has…
Traditional retail and shopping malls have certainly faced challenges over the past couple of years, particularly in the form of the big gorilla in the room, Amazon. However, a handful of names continue to perform well, and one of those names is the Texas-based home decor superstore, At Home. This stock really started to power…
The 180-day lockup period for Sea Limited (SE) expires on April 18, 2018. When this six month period concludes, the company’s pre-IPO shareholders will have the ability to sell their large blocks of currently-restricted shares. The potential for an increase in the volume of shares traded on the secondary market could negatively impact the stock price…
My Swing Trading Approach Going to take a cautious approach with this market today. Raise stops where I can, and even consider a short position if the market warrants it. Indicators VIX – Dropped 6% yesterday, with much of its gains coming in the last two hours of trading. Likely to spike on any military action…
A new short idea – – the health insurance company Anthem, completing a top: In the larger context of the channel, you can see the potential more clearly.
With AT&T (T) and Time Warner (TWX) currently fighting in court to prevail over the federal government in its anti-trust lawsuit, all eyes in the merger arbitrage world are focused on whether so-called “vertical” mergers will be endangered in the Trump Administration. Typically, lawsuits to block M&A transactions have centered on competitors trying to get…
There is a ‘risk off’ flight to safety in the markets today. The unusually high gold to silver ratio seems to reflect this undercurrent. Gold is somewhat preferred to silver in a ‘flight to safety scenario.’ I ascribe this to silver’s ‘industrial component’ which represents about one half its valuation. Note that Sprott has acquired…
Bombs, Schmombs!! After falling over 1.2% overnight after dramatic escalations in Syria, the US cash market open has prompted yet another panic-buying spree in stocks… Nasdaq is now green on the day along with Small Caps… Meanwhile, Treasury yields are tumbling…
Oil and the Canadian dollar are hyped up once more on record speculative long bets. Downside now looms large on the slightest de-escalation in the Middle East amid slowing world demand and a secular increase in global inventories. Ed Morse, global head of commodities at Citigroup Research, and Bloomberg View columnist Gary Shilling, discuss the…
Growth stocks — and specifically large-cap tech stocks led by the FAANGs — have utterly crushed value stocks of late. It’s been the dominant theme of the past five years. Even the first quarter of 2018, which saw Facebook engulfed in a privacy scandal, saw growth outperform value. Sector Benchmark Qtr. Return Large-Cap Growth S&P…
