This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the…
AT40 = 37.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 21.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The week ended badly with a 2.2% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY). The week began with the exact same loss. Between the bookends market participants breathed…
Four fast figures facts: As depicted above in the Scoreboard through these first 14 weeks of 2018, Gold’s weekly closes have been tightly arrayed between 1314 and 1349. That’s all: a range of 35 points, (or +2.7% from low-to-high). Thus price sits tight despite so many plights from tariffs and thievery to a stock market…
Readers know that I have beaten this drum all too often. Gold’s major fundamental driver is declining or negative real rates. There is a strong inverse correlation because Gold is money. That’s what JP Morgan said and he’s far more qualified to understand than quotable celebrities like Mark Cuban. But I digress. When real rates…
Didn’t we just leave this party? Having toyed with what could have turned into an ugly meltdown just a week ago, for a short while it looked like the bulls may get to work again and rekindle the bigger rally. Traders aren’t quite ready for that to happen though, hitting the “sell” button hard…
“While the Canadian goods trade deficit was smaller than expected by consensus, that’s not to say January’s trade report was good. The deterioration of two-way trade, i.e. sinking real exports and imports, is not a positive development because it points to softening demand both at home and abroad” (National Bank of Canada, March 7, 2018),…
The increase in equity market volatility preceded the escalation of trade tensions, but now the latter appears to be stymieing attempts to stabilize the former. The equity market was its own dynamics, and last year’s low volatility was an anomaly and payback, as in reversion to mean, is painful. Following the list of the specific Chinese…
Note: We’ve updated this commentary to include the latest labor force data in this morning’s employment report. Every week we post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the…
EUR/USD traded in a narrow range and suffered further losses. Will it continue falling or just move back up in the same known range? The week features a speech by Draghi, the ECB meeting minutes and more. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. There is further evidence…
The economic calendar is normal, with an emphasis on inflation data and the Fed. The increased intra-day volatility, often driven by overnight comments in China news or a Presidential tweet, has everyone’s attention. Even Fed punditry will take a back seat. With an increased sense of urgency, many will be wondering: has the Trump trade…
