Never get hung up on one payroll report, good or bad. The Establishment Survey series, seasonally-adjusted and statistically smoothed as much as humanly possible, is still incredibly noisy. It didn’t used to be this way, which is an important clue that “something” has changed. The lack of consistency in the monthly measurement is as the…
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs…
Talking Points: This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report out of the United States was not positive, as a headline print of +103k came-in far below the expectation of +188k. Average hourly earnings continued with consistency, printing at 2.7%, but this wasn’t enough to offset USD-weakness as Dollar bears came back with gusto. The initial reaction in…
The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%. The divergence between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast Model widened again this week. GDPNow Latest Forecast: 2.3 Percent – April 5, 2018 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in…
“The market is reacting in a way which does not comport with the strength, the unbelievable strength in President Trump’s economy. I mean, everything in this economy is hitting on all cylinders because of President Trump’s economic policies. We’ve cut taxes. That’s stimulating investment in a way which will be noninflationary. That’s going to drive…
I used to think that beating the market was the only thing that mattered when it comes to investment returns. Then, after a few bear markets I began to realize that beating the market was vastly overrated because beating the market almost always requires one to take a significant amount of risk. By reaching for…
Take a look at three trading ideas to prep you for the next trading session. Long Marathon Oil (MRO) Long McDonalds (MCD) Short Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK)
Centene (CNC – Free Report) is one of the largest managed care providers in the US, serving over 12 million people in 14 states. In addition to being the largest Medicaid Managed Care Organization in the country, Centene is also the largest carrier on the Health Insurance Marketplace and a national leader in managed long-term…
Shares of NewLink Genetics (NLNK), a clinical-stage company focused on developing and commercializing immunotherapeutic products for the treatment of cancer, plunged in pre-market trading after a competitor exploring the same areas of cancer treatment reported a clinical trial that did not succeed in achieving its goal. Incyte/Merck Combo Misses Mark Incyte (INCY) and partner Merck…
Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), the largest proxy advisory firm in the U.S., acquired research firm EVA Dimensions last month to improve the quality of the fundamental research it gives to its clients. ISS, which advises shareholders on proxy votes surrounding corporate governance and executive compensation, may begin implementing EVA Dimensions’ models into its recommendations as…
