Author Archives: Darren Marchal

Smart Global Has A Smart Chart

Micron is the king of DRAM (dynamic random access memory), and when they reported earnings recently, they noted that pricing was firm and demand was strong. That stoked competitor Smart Global, a niche player with some decent earnings of its own. Even though technology stocks have been taking it on the chin this week, Smart Global has been…

The Market Is In Dangerous Territory

My Swing Trading Approach With the large gap down this morning, the market is in dangerous territory, and risks breaking Monday’s lows and eventually the February intraday lows. As a result, I will stay put in my trading, until the market has provided me with a more definite trading edge to work with.  Indicators VIX –…

Trade Wars: China’s “Madman” Retaliation

Overnight, the trade wars between the U.S. and China sharply escalated, when China’s leaders communicated their seriousness to retaliate against tariffs announced by President Trump by targeting 106 U.S. products, including one in particular that will directly harm regular Chinese citizens: soybeans. China will struggle to replace U.S. soybean supplies after implementing an additional 25 percent tariff…

Spotify Enters Bear Market One Day After ‘IPO’

Having skipped the traditional initial public offering process, preferring a direct listing, Spotify’s (SPOT) newly-minted public shares are tumbling… As a reminder, Spotify didn’t sell any shares and there’s no lockup period for company insiders or, with one exception, current shareholders. That means the company’s first public share price, the open price of $165.90, was set…

US Private Sector Employment Jumps In March

Private sector employment in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of March, according to a report released by payroll processor ADP on Wednesday. ADP said employment surged up by 241,000 jobs in March after jumping by an upwardly revised 246,000 jobs in February. Economists had expected an increase of about 205,000…

Investors Should Opt Out Of OptiNose Before IPO Lock-Up Expires

When the 180-day lock-up period for OptiNose, Incorporated (OPTN) ends on April 11, 2018, the company’s pre-IPO shareholders and insiders will have the ability to sell large blocks of currently-restricted shares. The potential for an increase in the volume of shares traded on the secondary market could send OPTN’s stock price sharply lower in the short-term….

Q1 2018 Fixed Income Survey: Expectations For Rising Rates, Volat

The dichotomy between views from interest rate managers and credit managers continues. In our latest fixed income survey1, rates managers have blinked first. This quarter’s survey closed right before the February market sell-off, thus managers did not have the benefit of hindsight with regards to market repricing. Nonetheless, the results continue to provide valuable insight….

Contours Of The Correction

In early February, the markets experienced some turmoil. Volatility spiked, stocks sold off roughly 10% and credit spreads widened. These were strange events given that over the prior 15 months the total return for the S&P 500 was positive each and every month. From November 2016 through January 2018, stocks and most other risky assets…

Trade: Tit For Tat

During yesterday morning’s pointless run-up in valuations, I remarked how I wasn’t concerned, because the broader trend was with the bears. Likewise, with this morning’s smack-down, I’m not dancing on the table with glee, because it’s just another knee-jerk response to what now seems like a daly tit-for-tat response between China and the U.S. As…