In this week’s edition we look first at the reflation trade and specifically combined futures positioning in crude oil, copper, equities, the US dollar, and treasuries.Then we look at the US dollar index and why the chart shows it could be more than just a short squeeze. Then we move in to some longer term…
Video length: 00:11:09
Gold was up half a percent year-to-date through last Friday. This doesn’t sound very exciting, but over the same period, the S&P 500 Index was in the red—the first time in nearly a decade that stocks have been negative for the year through the beginning of May. The yellow metal is doing the one thing…
“storm in a teacup”… Video length: 00:00:20 Of course today’s big headline was confirmation that Trump is pulling US out of the Iran Nuclear Deal. That sparked some volatility in WTI that suggest extreme positioning is at play… Gold was also in play after Trump’s address… Defense stocks rallied happily on the back of Israel…
The three key currency indices of the dollar the yen and the euro have all signaled significant changes in market sentiment and momentum on the slower timeframes, and in the associated chart with this post we have the daily and weekly charts for the USDX top left and top right respectively, whilst bottom left we…
Although we await US President Trump’s Iran Nuclear address later this afternoon, Asian markets still closed better bid across the boards. Most of this was associated to the regional currency declines, but we did see some markets that performed. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng opened over 1% higher and continued to make progress for…
As shown in the chart below, the US Dollar index is up 4% since it took off on April 16th. Dollar strength hurts US companies that generate significant revenues outside of the country, and it benefits companies that generate the bulk of their revenues domestically. Since April 16th when the Dollar began its current rally,…
Something unusual has happened to the global economic surprise indexes. Not only have the emerging markets and G10 indexes fallen sharply, but the breadth of global economic surprise indexes has dropped to levels rarely seen outside of a recession. The chart in question comes from a broader discussion on the path of global trade, early…
Though volatility will continue to play foul with Wall Street, the recent surge in oil prices and tech sector renewed some confidence in the riskier assets. Crude oil topped the $70-per-barrel mark for the first time since November 2014 thanks to Iran sanction worries, falling Venezuela production, historic output cut deal and higher demand. The…
