I was right to be bearish last week…until the very last day when all at once the market reversed almost all its accumulated worries. The S&P 500 (SPY) bounced back from yet another test of still uptrending 200DMA support. Friday’s 1.3% gain put it within yet another encounter with downtrending resistance from its 50DMA. The 1.7%…
VIX tagged the 10-handle on Friday morning as the Commercials staged a raid on the long Speculators. It only took a few minutes, but it suggests a lot of shares traded hands as the computers hunted down and took out the stops. Re-crossing the Intermediate-term resistance at 17.38 confirms the VIX buy signal. (Bloomberg) Cboe…
Birth rates are plunging almost everywhere. The first chart below shows that even notoriously populous China and India have entered the same reproductive neighborhood as the US and are not that far from the assisted living center formerly known as Japan. Which is to say their populations have not only stopped increasing, they’ll actually start…
AUDUSD broke below 0.7501 support and extended its downside movement from 0.8135 to as low as 0.7472. A further decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at 0.7350 area. Near term resistance is at 0.7590, only a breakout of this level could bring the price back towards the falling…
EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain…
I am building out simple but effective trading models that combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis. Right now I am trying to combine two models into one model that’s more effective (combining the Golden/Death Cross model and the Golden/Death Cross model). I previously did a study which concluded that the Death Cross isn’t consistently bearish for the stock market….
These are the highlights of the May 5, 2018 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. Warren Buffett, 87, and Charlie Munger, 94, responded to shareholder questions during the five hour meeting. A record number of 42,000 shareholders attended. In opening comments, Warren Buffett mentioned that $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 in March 1942 would be worth…
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to…
The chart below reflects the boys and girls and robo-traders of Wall Street enjoying their last game of chart-point Ping-Pong. As is evident, the squeeze is on, and we don’t think this particular triangle “resolves” with another breakout into the financial stratosphere. When the market peaked at 2873 on the S&P 500 back on January 26, there were 170 points of daylight…
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I’ll pick a couple of themes and hammer them home with the charts, but sometimes it’s just a selection of charts that will add to your…
