The problems of Deutsche Bank (DB), which fired its own Herr Mueller last week, are not yet at an end. Yesterday an erroneous transfer from the German bank to an outside account went out, to pay the equivalent $35 billion. The recipient was honest and told the bank about the money received so it could…
The investment media is swirling with anxious prognostications about whether a recession and a Bear market in stocks are near. We received several calls and emails about that. Here is our opinion. We are in a late stage of this market, perhaps in the 11th hour. The US stock market is historically expensive with significant…
TLT long-term treasury bonds take a hit. Between them & Apple one-two punch AAPL continues to lead the decline and is leaving an ugly mark this week.
Despite reader Ed Hanson‘s comment: [T]he current Monthly EPU is at an elevated level, but it has been at this elevated level 7 out of the past 9 years. The elevated value is better described as normal for about the last decade. And his concluding admonishment: Perspective, Menzie I still believe that economic policy uncertainty as…
Stocks opened the week on a positive note but ended relatively flat as investors continue to digest a slew of earnings. So far, most of the companies that have reported earnings have beat on both the top and bottom line which is an encouraging sign. It is important to keep in mind that we are…
Gold prices dropped on Friday, marking yet another price reversal for the precious metal this year. Gold futures were on track for their first back-to-back loss in more than two weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and Treasury yields gained as economists discussed concerns about inflation. Expectations for inflation are now at their highest level in years,…
We previously reviewed the oil market in U.S. Shale vs. OPEC Oil Price War: Who Will Win?. American production of oil accelerated from 2012 to 2014 as non-conventional oil and gas drilling in shale led to a revolution in production known as fracking. The fracking revolution didn’t affect the marketplace until late 2014 when the price…
Japan’s inflation ticked down in March. Although economists say the slowdown does not indicate a reversal in trend, the reading is still far from the 2% target. The slowdown in March has introduced further uncertainty with regard to when the BOJ might achieve its target and clouded the central bank’s plans on exiting the easy…
In Part 2 we noted that the key main street economic metrics reflect no MAGA magic whatsoever. Since the election, inflation-adjusted paychecks have gone nowhere and almost anything else you can name—-business investment, real retail sales, productivity, employment and even real GDP—-continue to slog along in the tepid “recovery” channel that has prevailed since 2010. Notwithstanding…
Though it certainly seemed unlikely yesterday, the May natural gas contract ended up logging a small gain on the week, rallying 3% today to recover all of its losses yesterday. The result was a very slight weekly increase at the front of the natural gas strip, with larger losses further along. The May/June K/M contract…
