We often we concentrate on U.S. indexes and Treasuries and miss the bigger picture. Here are some interesting charts to remind us of the current state of the market. Keep in mind that unlike equities, forex and commodity prices do have a strong impact on the real economy and imbalances are hard to…
How can the economy grow by roughly one-third in real dollars while real median household income drops like a rock? Based on gross domestic product (GDP), the U.S. economy has grown smartly since 2000: GDP rose from 10,031 in 2000 to 17,840 in mid-2015. That’s an increase of 77.8%. If we adjust GDP for inflation, we…
Investing Daily Article of the Week by Robert Rapier, Investing Daily Investors in oil and gas companies have one more unpleasant surprise awaiting them at the end of the year. Each year in their annual reports, companies report on their future cash flows, net of costs, based on their proved reserves. This is referred to as the…
I blogged yesterday about the Fed’s information operations campaign for an interest rate increase. Gold is the obvious first victim of any move to strengthen an already strong dollar. It is worth asking ourselves whether other assets will suffer as much. Bubble economies happen all the time. They tend to happen in isolation, when investors in one…
EUR/USD Signal Update Yesterday’s signals might have given a quick and profitable short trade off 1.0892. Today’s EUR/USD Signals Risk 0.75% Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today. Long Trade 1 Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next entry into the zone…
Interest-rate decision out of London Frankly, with Nonfarm Payroll numbers coming out tomorrow, the only thing that we think will actually move the markets will be the interest-rate decision coming out of the Bank of England. This means of the British pound and the FTSE could be movers, but ultimately we feel that employment numbers…
<< Read Part I: To Log Or Not To Log Following up on this post, estimating the consumption function. Consider the canonical consumption-income relationship discussed in macro textbooks. For pedagogical reasons, the relationship is often stated as: (1) C = c0 + c1 Yd Where C is real consumption and Yd is real disposable income. Figure 1 depicts the relationship over the…
A flood of bearish news has pushed down oil prices to their lowest levels in months, with WTI nearing $45 per barrel and Brent flirting with sub-$50 territory. With a bear market back, there is pessimism throughout the oil markets. Goldman Sachs is even predicting oil stays at $50 through 2020, a profoundly grim view of the…
No lesser liquidity-providing high-frequency-trading never-a-losing-trade shop than Virtu financial has been ‘allowed’ to trade Chinese capital markets. Coming just days after Citadel’s ban, one can only assume that Chinese regulators made a deal with the devil CEO Doug Cifu to levitate markets at any and every cost in order to pick up pennies in front of de-leveraging, over-margined army…
Wednesday’s ISM non-manufacturing report showed US services sector expansion considerably stronger than economists had anticipated. The strength of services sector expansion however has diverged materially from what we see in US manufacturing. Source: St. Louis Fed, ISM The reason for the divergence is the strength of the US dollar, which on a trade-weighted basis is…
