Finance

Understanding The CFNAI Components

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which we reported on earlier today, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data: Production and Income Employment, Unemployment, and Hours Personal Consumption and Housing Sales, Orders, and Inventories The complete list is available here in PDF format. In today’s Chicago Fed update, we learned that “three…

EC The Illusio

U.S. equities continue to trade like a risk-free money market. Over the past seven months, the range (from high to low) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been among the smallest in history. This behavior has been comforting to most investors as they tend to equate low volatility with low risk. Additionally, every time there…

3 Things: Steel, Sentiment, & Productivity

Strength Of Steel Yesterday, I discussed the issues surrounding the Fed’s ongoing determination to hike interest rates despite evidence of a weakening economic environment. To wit: “The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow economic growth to keep an economy from overheating which would potentially lead to a sharp rise in inflationary pressures. Since commodities are…